Borderlands

British entering Baghdad on March 11, 1917

These are called the borderlands since the Middle East is in fact on the border between continents and cultures. Across these lands have passed many an army since ancient times. To the east is the heart of Asia. To the northwest are the nations of Europe. To the southwest is Africa. Whether 2,000 years ago or today, these lands seem to be the focus of much of the world's conflicts.

The nations and boundaries of today's Middle East are in major part (1) creations by the victorious European nations following the end of World War I and the breakup of the Ottoman Empire and (2) actions by the British relating to their former colonial possessions in India and North Africa. The resultant mess has created one great headache for the area's inhabitants and the rest of the world.

Nation Federations

The Middle East imagined here is primarily organized into four great federations of nations: Egyptian, Iranian, Semitic, and Turkic. The common thread uniting these federations is a language family. Two of the federations, Semitic and Egypt, have a common language, Arab, but are split for cultural, ethnic and geographic reasons. Ethnic groups within the federations having at least 10 million members (with some exceptions) are designated as distinct republics on the map.

Republics which may not fit easily into the four federations for historical reasons are imagined as Autonomous Nation States. The Kurd Autonomous Republic is one such instance. Israel and a smaller Lebanon are two others. Although it is possible in 200 years that these last two might be peaceably integrated into a Semitic Federation.

The rationale for the imagined nations and boundaries is covered in more detail below. 

Borderlands Map

I considered a map of a re-imagined Middle East in 2006 and dropped the project. I thought it might be too controversial. I also was unhappy with the topographic maps then available in the public domain for use as a base map.

The first issue of the Atlantic magazine of 2008 caused me to reconsider this post. It included an article entitled, "After Iraq", with a somewhat flippant map vision of a future Middle East. I thought, I could do better. I also discovered excellent topographic maps of the earth based on the data generated by NASA's Shuttle Radar Topography Mission satellite.

The map imagined below can be enlarged by clicking on it with the mouse. Any location on the map can then be brought further into view by clicking again on the desired location.

The boundaries of nations set forth on the map are based on a number of factors: current principal location of ethnic groups, consolidation of the sometime scattered locations of these groups, logical and/or defensible geographic formations (mountains, deserts, etc.) coterminous with the boundary, and political reality. For this to work, at least two mass movements of people would regrettably be required.

Three basins on the map (Caspian, Qattara, and Dead Sea) are shown filled with water to sea level.

Map base layer courtesy NASA, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission

Egypt

This federation is imagined as including peoples within the boundaries of present day Egypt and Sudan. The Darfur area and southern Sudan, home to primarily black African people, are seen as outside this federation, joining instead with more closely related groups in sub-Saharian Africa.

The below sea level Qattara Basin in northwestern Egypt is envisioned as being filled with ocean water with a channel connecting to the Mediterranean Sea. This new water basin would open an opportunity for a fishery and new cities along its shoreline. Most importantly, it would provide an alternative residence for the population outside the narrow corridor along the Nile River. Currently more than 90% of the inhabitants of Egypt and northern Sudan live along the Nile.

Iranian Federation

Present day Iran has a population of about 70 million. The imagined Iranian Federation is seen as including most of present day Iran, plus Afghanistan, Tajikistan and the western part of Pakistan. All of these regions are primarily inhabited by people speaking languages of the Iranian family, with about half of Afghanistan speaking Persian. Language speakers numbering 10 million or more are shown as separate republics on the map.

Three major groups inhabiting present day Iran are shown outside the Iranian Federation. These are the Azeri who speak a Turkish language and are also the principal inhabitants of Azerbaijan. They are shown in the Azeri Republic within the Turkic Federation. Another group is the Kurds, who are envisioned joining with their fellow Kurds from Iraq and Turkey in a Kurd Autonomous Republic. Last are the Arabs. Arab speaking western Khuzestan is seen as joining with Shiite inhabitants of southern Iraq in a new Mesopotamia Republic.

Kurd Autonomous Republic

The Kurds are seen as a special case in the Middle East. Numbering about 30 million, they are probably one of the largest ethnic groups in the world without their own country. As with many ethnic groups lacking recognized borders, they are scattered in many places in the area, with a large diaspora in western Europe. However, the main concentration of Kurds is in the region centered where Turkey, Iran and Iraq adjoin.

The imagined Kurd Autonomous Republic includes some but not all of these lands where the Kurds are most concentrated. Its northern boundary being Lake Van and the Hacres Mountains extending west, south of the Murat river. Kurdish regions of Turkey north of this line are excluded, as their inclusion would separate Turkey proper from its Turkic speaking cousins to the east in the Azeri Republic. A Turkic Federation split by a Kurd Republic would be impractical. Kurds ouside these boundaries that wanted to be part of the new republic would need to move within these boundaries.

The Kurd Republic would not be part of any federation, but is imagined as an autonomous entity under the direct oversight of the Solar Union.

Semitic Federation

The name recognizes that the language family historically dominate in this region was Semitic. Although the predominate semitic language currently is Arab, the Semitic name gives explicit recognition to other Semitic languages such as Hebrew. The boundaries within this federation are generally not based on ethnic differencies. The rationale for its organization is both the most complex and tentative of all the federations set forth here. Most of the designated republics within this federation do not exceed 10 million residents in population.

The nation of Iraq was created by the British at the breakup of the Ottoman Empire. The reimagined Middle East has the northern highlands becoming part of the Kurd Republic, with the rest divided among a new nation of Mesopotamia, a redesigned Iraq, and a new Baghdad city state.

Mesopotamia would include the primarily Shiite areas of Iraq south of Baghdad, Arab speaking western Khuzestan in Iran, and the primarily Shiite coastal area of Saudi Arabia north of Qatar, plus the island of Bahrain. The reconstituted Iraq would include the primarily Sunni Iraq north of Baghdad, western and southern Iraq beyond the Shiite areas and Kuwait, plus small eastern areas of Syria and Jordan. Kuwait, created by the British, is included since it is primarily Sunni Moslem in religion and would provide the new Iraq with its own outlet to the sea.

The Baghdad City State recognizes the Shia/Sunni divide of present day Iraq, with the country split between the two Moslem sects. Making the city a separate administrative entity would facilitate the creation of a more secular government open to equal opportunity for members of both sects. It also recognizes that division of the city between the two main Moslem sects would be an untenable solution. Baghdad, as the former capital of the Abbasid Caliphate, would be a prime candidate for the capital of the Semitic Federation.

The reimagined Syria would include most of current Syria plus southern Shiite Lebanon and the Golan Heights currently administered by Israel.

The new Palestine would include some of the West Bank portion of Palestinian lands, Jordan (with about 40% of its people being of Palestinian extraction) and the area of Saudi Arabia bordering the Gulf of Aqaba. Jordan, created by the British out of most of the post World War I Palestinian mandate to provide a kingdom for Abdullah of the Hashemite family, would be folded into a new Palestine. The area of present day Saudi Arabia along the Gulf of Aqaba would provide a new seaside home for relocated Palestinians of the Gaza Strip, a failed entity in its current isolated location and cramped size. The flat desert lands along the entrance of the Gulf would be watered by desalinated sea water to create farmland. The farmers, fishermen and rest of Gazan Palestine could live in peace in a greatly expanded homeland.

Hijaz would include some of the holiest sites of Islam; Mecca and Medina. This land would no longer be under the thrall of the intolerant and fundamentalist Wahhabi sect of Islam. Arabia would include much of the rest of today's Saudi Arabia plus the Arab Gulf states. The term "Saudi Arabia" would no longer apply. The boundaries of Yemen and Oman would be similar to today, with some minor expansion.

Last we come to Israel and Lebanon. The ideal situation would be their inclusion in a tolerant Semitic Federation. The alternative would be their existence as autonomous republics similar to the Kurds. The second situation would make the Arabian Federation a more likely name for this federation.

Turkic Federation

The Turkic Federation encompasses present day Turkey on the Anatolian Peninsula and a good part of the lands populated by Turkic language ethnic groups and formerly part of the defunct Soviet Union. The boundaries of the different Turkic language speaking members of this federation would generally be the same as today, with some minor adjustments to reflect ethnic realities and physical geography.

The Uzbek Republic is extended west into the much larger, but less populace, Kazahk Republic to give it an outlet on the Caspian Sea. The Azeri Republic has been expanded south to include Azeri areas of present day Iran. Slight adjustments of the borders of the Kazahk, Turkmen and Kyrgyz Republics reflect a desire to make them more logical and incorporate adjoining fellow members of their ethnic group. Some scattered members of these ethnic groups would need to move if they want to live in the same nation as the majority of their ethnicity.

Solaria and the Solar Union

The capital of the solar system should be located on the planet with the greatest concentration of population. As to its location on that planet, it should be in a region populated by people whose origin was primarily elsewhere and had not attempted to be earth's overlord. As a relatively new nation, Australia would not carry the cultural and provincial baggage of older civilizations. The Australia envisioned in 2200 would be home for races from throughout the earth, with Asians and Europeans predominating. 

Solaria

A great spaceport just outside the city would connect the city and earth to nations and communities established on natural and artificial bodies throughout the solar system. Subterranean tube trains would link Solaria with other Australian cities and sea ports connecting to the rest of the world. The city's newness and physical location, linked to the southern ocean and bordered by hundreds of miles of desert to the west, north and east, would facilitate Solaria's evolution over time as the capital city of the Solar System.

Solaria is envisioned as a new city located in the Lake Eyre region of the Australian desert which has been reformed using fusion or another massive energy source. Vast multi-use mega-structures would be located in the city center on a man-made island surrounded by a miles wide circular canal. Both parks and structures would overlook the circular canal. The circular canal would be connected to the ocean by a deep channel. This channel would cut through the desert landscape between the city and the Southern Ocean and be open to ocean going ships. The outside ring of the city would include structures climbing the geo-engineered mountain slopes and cliffs which surround the circular canal and which mountains were created from rock and soil removed as  the canal was dug.

Solar Union

The envisioned future community of Earth, its sister planets, asteroids and artificial habitations orbiting the sun must function within a political framework. The chart below presents a scenario of one sort of framework in which the envisioned society of 2200 might operate.

Sovereign members of this union would include national federations on earth, individual earth nations & city states and other individual and federations of planets, moons, asteroids and artificial structures in space. Directly dependent Solar Union territories would include space ports, research stations on earth and in space, significant wilderness areas, and frontier regions.

Political Structure

Solar System, Courtesy Wikipedia

The perceived political structure would support continued human progress both on earth and outer space in conjunction with the enhancement of the natural environment. The envisioned Solar Union would be a political union (similar to today's European Union) of independent political entities within the solar system who adhere to a common agreement or constitution.

The concept contemplates citizen representation through a Solar parliament. The parliament is envisioned as bicameral; with equal representation for political entities in one house and representation based on population in the other. There would be a prime minister elected by the two houses of the parliament. The supreme court members would be appointed for 10 year terms. The Academy of Sciences would be a new branch of government, recognizing the importance of science to the success of the Union.

Common Agreement

This Solar Union 'Common Agreement' would require: (1) functional democracy, (2) governmental authority exercised under a rule of law, (3) respect for human rights (happiness, religious, economic, environmental, social, health, education, political, etc.) and minority peoples, (4) support for free scientific inquiry, and (5) effective protection of the natural environment. Membership would be delayed for frontier human territories that are still being developed for habitation and denied to entities that fail to adhere to the common agreement.

 

Imaginary Places

These images are more than just imaginary futures or another dimension. They include actual places that can conjure up fascinating visions in the imagination. (Clockwise from upper left: Machu Picchu, Peru, Alicia Graham © 2005; Middle Earth from Tolkien's Lord of the Rings; Yangshuo, China, H Graem © 2007; The Moon Pandora from the movie Avatar)

Map of Tenoctitlan (Capital of the Aztec Empire) in the 1500s,
before it was destroyed by the Spanish

Herein can be visions that do not fit easily into the categories on this website. They are ideas or places that caught my fancy. They range from the fanciful to the practical. They may arise whole cloth from the imagination or be the ignored ideas of past visionaries that have fallen into history's dustbin. Some were actual places of which only the words or drawings of a lone chronicler remain. 

These visions have no relationship to current trends. The likelihood that they would become reality is slim, but the possibility is interesting. Given the sameness that can permeate our lives, imaginary places can transport one to a another realm for a while. Such visions may even stimulate enterprising souls to create future places that may actually transform at least a part of the world for the better.

Orion's Arm - A collective hard science fiction world building endeavor called Orion's Arm focuses on imaginary places, technologies and societies encompassing vast star systems and a timescale of 10,000+ years. Despite this seemingly unbounded character, the website is constrained by hard science, plausible technology and the requirement of realism in a number of realms.

Habitable Exomoons

Giant gas planet visible in the sky of a terraformed moon in the habitable zone
of an unknown star

Giant gas planets the size of Jupiter or larger have been found in orbit within a star's habitable zone. Although conditions on such gas planets would be adverse to any earth-like life, an orbiting moon comparable to earth's mass could exist and provide a more friendly environment.

Gas giants larger than Jupiter, with moons Earth-size or larger, are possible. Some researchers think the capacity to detect them—and even analyze them for habitability—may be just over the horizon. Earth-size moons could even form as planets and later be captured by a more massive gas planet's gravity to become a satellite.

NASA's successor to the Hubble Space Telescope, the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), currently scheduled to launch in 2020, should open up the field of exomoons, assuming they are as abundant as theory predicts. It may even be able to resolve atmospheric constituents of those moons.

Moon habitability depends on a number of factors. Existence within the habitable zone is the first requirement, adequate size to hold a substantial atmosphere is another. A factor significant for the human experience would be the length of the day. The movie Avatar's moon Pandora could exist.

Moon Rotation and Tidal Forces

 

Giant gas planet and earth-size moon in the habitable zone, H Graem © 2008

In our Solar System, all the giant planets rotate about their axis in less than one earth day. Jupiter's day is less than 10 hours. A giant gas exoplanet orbiting in the habitable zone of a star of the sun's type would probably experience a rotation similar to that of our Solar System's giant gas planets. Moons orbiting this gas giant would be constrained by a number of different forces.

Where the moon is orbiting a giant planet the size of Saturn or larger, the moon's rotation will likely be restricted by its host planet. Based on our experience with moons orbiting the Solar System's giant planets, the moon will experience a tidal lock (similar to our moon with one side always facing the earth) by the planet. Other things being equal, a large moon will lock faster than a smaller moon at the same distance from the planet. Unless a moon is unusually distant from its host giant planet, it will be subject to this tidal lock.

The day of a moon tidally locked on its host planet will equal its time in orbit about the planet. The moons orbiting closest to the planet will have the fastest orbital speed and thus the shortest day. For most moons orbiting giant planets (except for those rare instances where there is no tidal lock), the length of the moon's day will be dependent on the orbital distance to the planet.

Using the four largest moons of our largest planet, Jupiter, as an example, the table to the left puts this situation in perspective. The moons are listed in the order of their orbital distance from Jupiter, the closest being Io. All four are tidally locked and thus rotate about their axis in the exact same time that they orbit Jupiter. Rounding off, their respective rotational times are 1.8, 3.6, 7.2, and 16.7 Earth days.

One concern with moons having orbital periods greater than 4 earth days is that the moon could be uninhabitable due to large swings in surface temperature between the day and night side. However, it is possible that even a modest amount of carbon dioxide in the moon's atmosphere would retain a tolerable temperature range despite having a day as long as several weeks. Clouds and large bodies of water should further moderate temperature extremes. 

If we want to find a moon with a day similar to that of earth, it will need to orbit very close to its host giant planet. In the case of Jupiter, Io comes closest with a rotational speed of less than two days. Tidal forces actively impact Io in ways beside its rotational speed, tidally induced heating of the moon's interior has created many large volcanoes which continually remake the moon's surface. 

Where the moon's orbit is circular, such propinquity results in a fixed tidal bulge on the side facing the planet. Where the orbit is more elliptical, the moon will approach and recede from the planet at regular intervals. The changing gravitational forces will result in a rhythmic compression or kneading of the moon's innards, generating a lot of heat. A moon close enough to the host planet to rotate in one day would experience significant volcanic and earthquake disruption as these powerful tidal forces heated its interior.

Roche Limit - Another limitation on very close moon orbits is the Roche limit, the closest distance an object can come to another object without being pulled apart by tidal forces. The Roche limit is the orbital distance at which a satellite will begin to be tidally torn apart by the body it is orbiting. 

If a planet and a satellite have identical densities, then the Roche limit is 2.446 times the radius of the planet. For Jupiter, the Roche limit for a moon the same density as Jupiter is 175,000 kilometers.

If the satellite is more than twice as dense as the host planet (as can easily be the case for a rocky moon orbiting a gas giant) then the Roche limit will be inside the host and hence not relevant. However, as we can see with Io, although the moon may survive at a distance equivalent to a day's rotational speed, its insides will certainly be shaken up by the tidal forces.

One scientist has proposed an interesting aspect of this heating associated with tidal forces. Tidal heating may substantially expand the outer habitable zone of a star when a large moon is involved.

Prospective Moon Life

Future hypothetical moon orbiting a gas giant planet located in the
primary star's habitable zone

A noteworthy aspect of life on these moons is that inhabitants of the moon's near side will always see the planet in their sky. The far side's inhabitants will never see it if they never travel away from that side. 

Variable daily tides also move across the moon due to the local sun, or suns, and other large moons. These fellow moons exert varying gravitational forces as their orbits bring them closer or further from our subject moon. As on Earth, oceans on the moon's surface would rise and fall in response to these latter tidal forces. 

An obvious difference from life on earth will be the frequency and length of solar eclipses. Given the size of the planet, inhabitants of a moon (those living on the near side facing the planet) should experience numerous and lengthy periods when the planet blocks their view of the sun. Eclipses will be most frequent when all three bodies, the primary star, host giant planet and the subject moon, are in the same orbital plane.

Given that large moons occur in groups among the gas giants in our Solar System, habitable moons could also occur in sets of two or more per planet. The prospect of two or more habitable, Earth-size moons in orbit around a giant super Jupiter certainly stimulates the imagination.

Other Factors Effecting Possible Habitable Moons

Habitability of extrasolar moons will depend on stellar and reflected planetary illumination of the moons as well as the effect of eclipses on their orbit-averaged surface illumination. Beyond that, with short day moons, tidal heating could increase surface temperature, effecting a moon's habitability.

The magnetic environment of exomoons, which is critically triggered by the intrinsic magnetic field of the host planet, has been identified as another factor of exomoon habitability. Most notably, it was found that moons at distances between about 5 and 20 planetary radii from a giant planet could be habitable from an illumination and tidal heating point of view, but still the planetary magnetosphere would critically influence their habitability.